Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 23.773706 25.965613 28.355812 31.171399 34.417626 38.067731 42.517726
2025-08-10 20.128284 23.041325 26.452487 30.801412 36.287614 43.106130 52.435184
2025-08-17 17.827895 21.140296 25.236926 30.801525 38.373849 48.663536 64.380544
2025-08-24 16.036973 19.532797 24.042700 30.487362 39.828952 53.554391 76.788465
2025-08-31 14.674101 18.262520 23.054214 30.199523 41.141115 58.399060 90.654208
2025-09-07 13.583482 17.210257 22.195205 29.905711 42.300560 63.169766 106.128235
2025-09-14 12.720225 16.369526 21.514625 29.738730 43.565288 68.346280 124.597808
2025-09-21 11.927458 15.548493 20.763281 29.334937 44.319418 72.730954 143.517212
2025-09-28 11.640193 15.420731 21.013089 30.541739 48.079978 84.001982 186.579471
2025-10-05 11.061615 14.812493 20.461736 30.326787 49.152103 89.939387 219.501662
2025-10-12 10.571805 14.299294 20.009092 30.216253 50.391141 96.640855 261.293279
2025-10-19 10.236671 13.995946 19.860729 30.617903 52.733844 106.863147 329.028300
2025-10-26 9.809816 13.530932 19.424186 30.467790 53.946734 114.825728 401.045998
2025-11-02 9.400991 13.070194 18.960907 30.218665 54.913469 122.605557 489.295535
2025-11-09 9.077839 12.726164 18.668008 30.263765 56.579102 133.359554 628.376332
2025-11-16 8.727265 12.317076 18.232156 29.975913 57.394911 141.827350 784.282666
2025-11-23 8.407246 11.940141 17.825531 29.702573 58.202398 150.792483 995.733348
2025-11-30 8.110243 11.585471 17.434031 29.418850 58.937130 160.013027 1285.130409
2025-12-07 7.852648 11.283219 17.116250 29.257081 59.976679 171.229154 1744.882483
2025-12-14 7.580546 10.943540 16.709286 28.863329 60.308169 179.740917 2311.000294
2025-12-21 7.536710 10.987291 17.006851 30.041691 65.426110 215.072183 5431.444906
2025-12-28 7.316319 10.717142 16.700734 29.831969 66.357993 229.912250 9520.516290
2026-01-04 7.121949 10.483408 16.449567 29.724108 67.602076 248.012021 21405.421406